Barack Obama and The Bradley Effect

The folks on MSNBC and out in the blogosphere have cited the Bradley Effect as a possible explanation for the big gap between the final polls which had Obama cruising to an easy victory and up approximately 7% and the end result, Hillary's 39%-36% victory.

Wikipedia explains the Bradley Effect also known as the Wilder Effect below:

The term Bradley effect or Wilder effect refers to a phenomenon which has led to inaccurate voter opinion polls in some American political campaigns between a white candidate and a non-white candidate. Specifically, there have been instances in which statistically significant numbers of white voters tell pollsters in advance of an election that they are either genuinely undecided, or likely to vote for the non-white candidate, but those voters exhibit a different behavior when actually casting their ballots. White voters who said that they were undecided break in statistically large numbers toward the white candidate, and many of the white voters who said that they were likely to vote for the black candidate ultimately cast their ballot for the white candidate. This reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well.

Researchers who have studied the issue theorize that some white voters give inaccurate responses to polling questions because of a fear that they might appear to others to be racially prejudiced. Some research has suggested that the race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor into that concern. At least one prominent researcher has suggested that with regard to pre-election polls, the discrepancy can be traced in part by the polls' failure to account for general conservative political leanings among late-deciding voters.

This phenomenon was first noticed in the 1982 race for governor of California, where Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a black Democrat, narrowly lost to Republican George Deukmejian, despite polls showing him with a lead ranging from 9 to 22 points. The next year, African American Democrat Harold Washington barely won his race for mayor of Chicago against Republican Bernard Epton. Pre-election polls taken within the last two weeks of the campaign showed Washington with a 14-point lead.

Times like these remind us all that even white liberals from New England are not completely free from the racist tendencies that still plague much of the South. And if the Bradley Effect is indeed real in this instance and Obama is able to secure the nomination - what will happen in a General Election when more moderate Democrats and Independents and actual Republicans participate? America needs Barack Obama. I guess a potential Bradley Effect just signals to Authentic Progressives that an Obama Presidency could be a tougher task than expected. However, I HOPE there is another explanation for tonight's gap between the polls and results. While my experiences lead me to probably believe otherwise, I'll remember Obama's wise quip to Senator Clinton that "there's no such thing as false hopes." Hopes aren't false.

Dwight McKissic, Racism & Southern Baptists

Rev. Dwight McKissic is a prominent African-American pastor in the Southern Baptist Convention. Over the past year, McKissic has become a controversial figure in the SBC. You can read about that here. Recently, McKissic posted a guest column at the blog SBC Today. Included in his column (which is mostly about tongues, charismatic theology, etc.) McKissic tells this incredible story which definitely deserves to be retold.

Here is McKissic:

On a visit to the SBC Executive Committee Building in Nashville, Tennessee this past September, I was privileged to take a guided elevator tour of 7 floors. I happen to notice that I didn’t see any African Americans on either floor. When I asked who was the highest ranking African American in the executive building because I wanted to meet and dialogue with him or her, I was told, the highest ranking employee at the executive committee building was “the head custodian”. That response completely took the wind out of my sail. I have not felt welcome or completely included in the SBC since that day, though I must confess that my reception at the Executive Committee was marked by every Christian courtesy and grace.

America would not stand for the White House or the Republican or Democratic Executive offices to be completely staffed by all Whites. Less you think I’m being overly racially sensitive; how would you respond if the SBC executive committee employees were all African American? Perhaps you would be left with the feeling of being alienated and unwelcomed as well. If I could find an Anglo gentleman to serve as executive pastor, certainly the EC could find an African American to serve somewhere in addition to the head custodian in a upper level management position...

If an African American is elected president of the SBC, that would be a major step in the right direction. Because the presidency is largely a ceremonial post that would document “we are welcome”—not just as a missions project of the SBC—but we are also welcome at the pinnacle level of ceremonial leadership. I’m praying that Pastor Fred Luter becomes the first African American president of the SBC, but it would represent serious empowerment and inclusion if a distinguished, qualified African American pastor or denominational servant were appointed at the appropriate times to the presidency’s of the EC, IMB, NAMB, or the head of any other convention entity. Are African Americans welcome as missions projects or as contributors to the cooperative program? Absolutely! Are we welcome to serve as entity heads? The jury is still out.

A discussion is happening over at BaptistLife.com on this same subject. Check it out.

Jena 6 - A Threat to Justice Everywhere!!!

What is Jena 6?

If you don't know - you better read up.

A snippet follows:

What white Southerners still fail to realize is their complicity in some of the most vicious and effective terrorism the world has ever seen. Lynchings were only the most visible and brutal embodiments of a system to terrorize the black minority. A noose is a symbol the way a swastika is a symbol. A noose hanging from a tree in that context is an almost unimaginably vicious act. Those white teens, instead of being ashamed of their terrorist ancestry, reveled in the evil. The adults who are charged with the education of all the students deemed it merely a prank.

The scariest part of this ordeal is that you know these boys are the relatively lucky ones for whom publicity might spare them. How many other black lives are still thrown away at the whim of our broken justice system?

It's amazing that in this day and age, a 16 year old black man could be tried as an adult on trumped up charged, convicted, and sentenced to 22 years in prison by an all-white jury. But honestly I'm not too surprised. This kinda thing happens far too often. Kanye definitely wasn't wrong. And John Edwards is dead right - there are Two Americas.My former boss and personal hero, Rep. John Lewis (a Baptist minister) released the following statement today:

"I salute the hundreds and thousands of students who will be coming from all around the country, but especially from the colleges and universities in the Atlanta area, who are moved to action in the Jena 6 case. It is important for the young people of this generation to stand up, to speak up, speak out, and move their feet when they witness a miscarriage of justice.

Black Baptists have stood up and are speaking out. Friendship-West Baptist Church of Dallas took a bus full of its members to Jena, Louisiana today for the protests. Dozens of other congregations Baptist and non-Baptist have followed suit. Baptist professor Mike Broadway has blogged about a Jena 6 rally held at the Baptist affiliated Shaw University in Raleigh, North Carolina. Yesterday, EthicsDaily.com told the story of an American Baptist pastor in Arlington, Texas who is credited with bringing international attention to this awful instance of racial injustice. On behalf of American Baptists, General Secretary Roy Medley has taken a stand for the Jena 6.

I do wonder whether we truly believe that injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere?

If we really do - why hasn't Jena 6 caused more Baptists to stand up, to speak up, and move their feet at the sight of this blatant miscarriage of justice???